Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/12/25): Busch Leads Off, Ballesteros DH, Boyd Bump Day

Having the Rays at Wrigley for a weekend series late in the season reminds me of a game I attended a little over 11 years ago. Joe Maddon was still managing Tampa at the time, and the Cubs had a dynamic young second baseman making his home debut against a former Cubs prospect whose trade was lamented for quite a while. I was excited for the chance to see Javier Baez face Chris Archer, but even more excited to be watching from the executive suite at the end of the row on the third base line.

My friend and business acquaintance, whose passing last year I memorialized with a tattoo, invited me up for the first of what ended up being many great experiences. He told me before the game that John Cusack might be there as well, a prospect I found highly dubious until the Say Anything star indeed showed up. So there I was, sitting right next to Buck Weaver as he vaped and ate hot dogs while wearing a White Sox hat.

The actor declined multiple requests for pictures, which I respected because he was there to watch the game with a buddy and his son. They realized after making some small talk that I knew my stuff, so I eventually spent quite a bit of time talking with them about Javy and Anthony Rizzo — namely, the play in Arizona a few weeks prior where he’d fallen out of play after catching a foul ball. I even asked Cusack why he’d worn a Sox cap; he said it was the first one he could grab on his way out the door.

The Cubs went on to lose 4-3 in 10 innings, using pitchers Tsuyoshi Wada, Brian Schlitter, Wesley Wright, Justin Grimm, Pedro Strop, Carlos Villanueva, and Hector Rondon along the way. This was, of course, in the days before three-batter minimums. It was also pre-DH in the NL, which meant future Cub Brad Boxberger had to bat for himself to end the top of the 10th before staying on the mound to close it out.

That was not a good season on the North Side, but everyone knew bigger things were around the corner. I don’t think any of us could have predicted it would only take two years, nor that they’d be really bad again in seven years. The big difference between that Friday afternoon in 2014 and any that have come since is that the innocence has been lost. I’m not necessarily saying that’s a bad thing, just that it’s not the same.

Take today’s game: No one is going to be happy with the Cubs losing a close game, even if there are signs of good things to come. We no longer have the luxury of waiting till next year or maybe even until 2032, as GM Carter Hawkins mentioned a little while back. Matthew Boyd needs to shove and the hitters need to find their power strokes once again, because this team is burdened by expectations the likes of which those youngsters could not have fathomed over a decade ago.

Boyd has been burdened by a significant innings load as well, having already logged a larger workload this season than in the last three combined. And we’re taking 42 more innings. Provided he goes at least four this afternoon, he’ll equal or surpass the second-highest innings total of a career that began a year after that fateful game noted above. That appears to be wearing on the lefty as the season winds down, as he’s got a 1-5 record over his last eight starts.

Some of that is on the offense, but he’s got a 4.72 ERA over that stretch despite holding the Orioles scoreless over seven frames on August 2. Boyd has given up 44 hits with only 37 strikeouts over the same period, signs that he’s just not as dialed in as he was earlier in the season. It would not be at all surprising to see Craig Counsell lean more heavily on a bullpen that now features several multi-inning relievers who’d been part of their respective rotations earlier in the season.

As always, spotting Boyd a few early runs would be a big help as well. Michael Busch will lead off at first, followed by Ian Happ in left and Carson Kelly catching. Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Nico Hoerner is at second, Moisés Ballesteros is the DH, and Dansby Swanson is at short. Willi Castro patrols right and Matt Shaw handles third.

They’re facing former top prospect Shane Baz, who has missed big chunks of the last few seasons with injuries. Right elbow surgery kept him out for most of the 2022 season, then he was active for a month before being diagnosed with an elbow strain and placed on the 60-day IL. He eventually underwent Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2023. After making it back to the bigs last season, Baz has made 29 starts so far this year.

The former 12th overall pick has struggled this season, though his fastball still sits 97 mph with good ride and a little arm-side run. His 85 mph knuckle curve gets a lot of depth and has been effective against hitters from both sides, but neither his 90 mph cutter nor 87 mph slider has worked well. He’s also got a firm change at 89-90 mph, but it’s been largely ineffective as a weapon against lefties.

Baz’s splits are pretty even despite right-handed hitters launching 17 of the 26 homers he’s allowed, though that comes mainly from pitching in a minor league park while the Rays figure out their new ballpark situation. That means his road splits are significantly better, as in 52/43/133 points more across the slash and a .299 wOBA against .366 at home. However, much like Boyd, Baz appears to have hit a wall as his innings pile up.

Since the start of July, he’s got a 5.74 ERA with 12 homers allowed in 12 starts. Even though he’s still been better on the road over that time, it’s not quite as stark as earlier in the season. That said, this is a guy who could come out and shove against a team that has all too often forgotten how to score runs in bunches.

First pitch from Wrigley is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

Back in the Blues.

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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) September 12, 2025