The Rundown: Hoerner Rumors Won’t Die, International Free Agency News, Cubs in Venezuela

They say a watched pot never boils, and I’d argue the same is true for offseason movement. Despite a little early activity and a few deadline-induced deals for Japanese players, it’s felt like MLB teams just loaded up on relievers and then decided to take some time off. I’m sure everyone can relate to that, having surely overindulged in appetizers or bread prior to your entree reaching the table.

At least we can rest assured that the Cubs’ eyes won’t be bigger than their stomachs, as Jed Hoyer carefully tracks the nutritional value and cost efficiency of each and every meal. He’ll gladly pass up something that tastes better in favor of today’s lunch special, just like he’ll set aside that prime cut of ribeye to grab a strip that’s about to go past its expiry. With just about six weeks until spring training opens in Mesa, several of the remaining steaks are going to start flying off the shelves soon.

Sorry if it sounds like I’m reducing players to pieces of meat, but I just can’t avoid clumsy analogies. Kind of like Jerry Reinsdorf can’t avoid bad decisions, though it sounds like he was talked out of one by his execs when it came to signing Munetaka Murakami for around one-sixth of what some projections had him getting. That’s how AJ Pierzynski described it on Monday’s episode of Foul Territory.

Murakami’s market had cratered, forcing him to bet on himself with a two-year, $34 million deal that could be a steal for the Sox. Even if he struggles a little with the transition to MLB, that contract isn’t prohibitive in the least for a guy with elite power. We saw a similar drop in perceived value with righty Tatsuya Imai, who surprisingly signed with the Astros for a three-year deal that guarantees him $54 million and includes another $9 million in possible incentives.

Getting opt-outs after each of the first two years and having an opportunity to carve out his own path in Houston factored heavily in Imai’s choice, but so did the name of the ballpark he now calls home. What seemed like maybe just a coincidence became far more relevant when Takayuki Inoue, Daikin’s chief marketing officer, was introduced by Astros owner Jim Crane during Imai’s introductory press conference. Crane praised Inoue as being crucial to getting the deal done.

This strikes me as being very similar to college teams landing players in the portal by getting boosters to put up big money for NIL deals. If only Chicago had massive businesses that would be willing to pony up a little extra cash to help their teams sign free agents. Alas.

Hoerner’s Name Keeps Flying

You can’t throw a rock on social media without hitting at least two Nico Hoerner trade rumors, though most are admittedly just bad fanfic proposals that would make less than zero sense for the Cubs. Still, it’s impossible to overlook the possibility that Hoyer’s value algorithm has produced a much lower extension figure than Hoener and his camp believe he can land on the open market. Several factors could lead to a wide gulf between the two sides.

Hoerner has just one year remaining on the three-year, $35 million extension he signed ahead of the 2024 season, a deal that bought out two years of arbitration and one year of free agency. He’ll turn 29 in May, so hitting the market as a 30-year-old means it could be his last shot at securing a long-term deal. He’s played second base since Dansby Swanson came to town, but his ability to play short creates more value. Then there’s Hoerner’s lack of power at a time when most middle infielders can bang.

Out of 22 qualified second basemen in 2025, Hoerner’s seven home runs were more than only Chase Meidroth (5) and Xavier Edwards (3). Meidroth had 144 fewer plate appearances, and the 10 players immediately above Hoerner on the list had anywhere from 21 to 134 fewer PAs. A vast majority of shortstops also have a great deal more pop than Hoerner.

Far from an attempt to smear a guy who may well be the Cubs’ best all-around player, I’m simply trying to illustrate how his reps might not be able to find a match with Hoyer on an amenable structure. If that is the case, it’s very possible we could see Hoerner moved. The same is true for any number of other rental players, particularly if the Cubs aren’t able to walk the tightrope the front office is currently constructing.

Should the Cubs fail to repeat the success of last season, there’s really no reason to keep Hoerner, Jameson Taillon, Shōta Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and a bunch of relievers. Even Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki could be talked into waiving their no-trade clauses if it means escaping a sinking ship. While I don’t find that to be a distinctly strong possibility, it can’t be dismissed.

IFA Period Opening Soon

The 2026 international free agency period doesn’t open until the 15th, but that doesn’t mean most of the players in this class are still seeking deals. It’s a shady system in which teams reach deals with young teens who are years away from eligibility, and you can only imagine the number of handlers and hangers-on whose palms are being greased. Many teams have academies set up in the Dominican Republic and elsewhere to effectively train and recruit young players whose only way out is baseball.

Brian Cashman and the Yankees may be trying to change things, at least the way they’re run in the Bronx, by restructuring their organization. They have reportedly ordered the termination of all pre-agreements and will install a new international director with the goal of “restoring legitimacy and transparency to the process.”

The Cubs are undergoing no such sweeping changes, but some folks who follow this topic more closely have expressed concern over the organization’s apparent lack of urgency in the IFA market. They have reportedly agreed with only one player for a bonus of more than $1 million, Dominican shortstop Yadier Muñoz, though Francys Romero of Beisbol FR has them connected to 15 other players.

The specifics are behind a paywall, so I want to respect Romero by not just sharing all of the names here. That said, it looks like they’ve committed roughly $6 million of their $6.6792 million pool already to players from various Latin/Caribbean nations. I’m not going to pretend to be up on all the youngsters the Cubs are tied to — or any of them, for that matter — but we’ll bring you more information as it becomes publicly available.

Venezuelan Upheaval Impacting Teams

Without getting into the sweeping geopolitical implications of recent events in Venezuela, it’s important to note that a large number of professional ballplayers hail from that country. The Cubs will be adding three new players from Venezuela through the IF process, bringing them to around 20 (pending any additional moves) across the organization. As you can imagine, there are concerns about the safety of those players and how the Cubs and other teams will get them back to the States for spring training.

While this is not close to the same situation as COVID, similar travel issues may arise depending on how things settle down at home and abroad. The Venezuelan Winter League playoffs were underway, and the Caribbean Series was scheduled to begin there on the 12th, but they’re currently navigating a few little complications.

Other News and Notes

• A report last week had the Red Sox offering Alex Bregman $160 million over five years, but Buster Olney speculates a deal could be more like the six-year, $171.5 million offered by the Tigers last winter. Either way, Bregman should snatch that up quick. Either way, he’s looking at a minimum of six years and $200 million when you include 2025.
• According to Front Office Sports, former White Sox TV man Jason Benetti has emerged as the leading candidate to anchor NBC’s MLB coverage. Benetti is currently under contract with Fox to cover MLB, college football, and college basketball, but he’s third to Joe Davis and Adam Amin when it comes to those MLB games. NBC recently reached an agreement to carry early Sunday games on Peacock and Sunday nights on NBC.
• The Dodgers and Braves are among the teams showing interest in Brewers starter Freddy Peralta.
• The Orioles have been circling both Framber Valdez and Ranger Suárez, per Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner.
• Olney called it “inevitable” that the Mets will sign one of those two pitchers.

Trailer Time

I’m a sucker for campy action movies and I am also a big fan of Zazie Beetz, so They Will Kill You is very much my jam. Billed as a mix of Ready or Not and The Raid, this action slasher follows a housekeeper who has been hired to help maintain a residence in a skyscraper. Oh, she’s also apparently supposed to be a human sacrifice by the satanic cult that calls the building home.

I’m a little concerned that the trailer provides a little too much exposition, but this could be a banger either way. This one is age-restricted, so you may have to visit YouTube to watch.