Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/15/26): Amaya Catching, Shaw in RF, Imanaga Starting

The Cubs went from losing three of their last four to winning two of three, and they’ve now scored at least seven runs in each of their last three games. Even accounting for some fake-rally scoring on Monday, their 24 runs are their most in a three-game stretch this season. It does still feel a little whack-a-mole-ish, though, because they’ve also allowed 17 runs with a pitching staff that just can’t seem to stay consistent.

A lot of that comes from injuries, whether they’re the standing sprains and strains, but now freakish misfortune is entering the picture. While doing a warmup drill with a medicine ball in a tunnel at Citizens Bank Park, righty reliever Ethan Robert dislodged a vent cover on the wall. It was ticketed for his leg, so he instinctively reached back and got a cut on his right middle finger. He didn’t require stitches, but he’s got to let it heal before he can pitch again.

The Cubs called up lefty Ryan Rolison to fill out a bullpen that now has five southpaws, which is a matter of necessity rather than strategy. You might think it’s because the Phillies have a lot of left-handed hitters, but the unfortunate fact is that the Cubs don’t have any more active righty relievers on the 40-man roster. Phil Maton and Hunter Harvey just went to the IL, Porter Hodge has been out of action since spring training, and Gavin Hollowell is on the minor league IL with an elbow issue.

This situation isn’t going to change in the immediate future, as those various IL stints are locked in. Craig Counsell just has to hope his Frankenstein bullpen can get the job done behind his starters. Colin Rea settled in nicely last night after an early homer, a concept with which Wednesday starter Shōta Imanaga is very familiar. He has very limited experience against this Phils roster, but the results haven’t gone in his favor so far. If he can turn that around, the Cubs have a chance to head home with another series win.

Nico Hoerner will have a say in the game as the leadoff hitter and second baseman, then it’s Alex Bregman at third and Seiya Suzuki at DH. Ian Happ is in left, Michael Busch is at first, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Miguel Amaya is the catcher. Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center and Matt Shaw bats ninth in right field.

They’re facing lefty Jesús Luzardo, the latest in what feels like an inordinate number of southpaws to start against the Cubs this season. In point of fact, their 201 PAs against lefties heading into this game put them 13th in MLB; the Twins lead baseball with 314 PAs, 70 more than the second-place Marlins. Luzardo busted out in his first season with the Phillies last year, logging career highs in wins (15), innings (183.2), and strikeouts (216).

His strikeout rate has jumped markedly in the early going, putting him well above any previous results, and his walk rate is lower than ever. That could be a result of his velocity ticking up on everything but the changeup; his fastball is at 97 mph, his sweeper is a very firm 86-87 mph, and his sinker is at 96 mph. The change dropped down to 86-87 mph after being nearly 88 last year, but it tunnels well with his fastball.

Luzardo is a sweeper-first guy, throwing his breaking ball 38% of the time to both righties and lefties. Those numbers may change as the season progresses, as he’s faced very few left-handed hitters through three starts. He hasn’t produced particularly big splits in the past, even if they were more pronounced last year, and the limited number of lefties he’s seen this season have hit him really well. That might be because his fastball and sinker are his “worst” pitches, and they make up 60% of his repertoire in those matchups.

The only area in which Luzardo falls below average is his 5.7-foot extension, which is in the fourth percentile among MLB pitchers. While he’s able to get around that with good sequencing and location, it gives hitters just a wee bit more time to see his stuff. Then you look at his 94th percentile whiff rate with 95th percentile strikeout and chase rates, and you realize his short extension isn’t really advantageous for opponents.

These Cubs hitters have certainly had issues with him, as evidenced by their .188/.303/.329 slash over 85 at-bats. Bregman is an exception, as he’s hit a pair of homers and boasts a 1.152 OPS against Luzardo. That’s only in 11 ABs, so take it for what it’s worth. You’ll note that the aggregate OBP is much higher than the average, mainly from Swanson drawing six walks and Happ taking five. However, Luzardo has tamped that down after being a little wilder earlier in his career.

We’ve seen the home run factor heavily in the first two contests of this series, and I wouldn’t expect that to change with upper-80s temps in Philly. It’s not the best city to find yourself engaged in a slugfest, but the Cubs have shown they can score in other ways as well. Should be a phun phinale, or at least we can hope so.

First pitch is at 5:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.