Chicago Cubs Lineup (4/18/26): Taillon Tossing Against Familiar Foe Peralta

The Cubs put up 12 runs yesterday, marking the first time since September 13-16, 2019 against the Pirates that they’ve scored double digits in three straight games. It also boosted their run differential to a division-leading +27, making them the only last-place team with a positive figure in that regard. In fact, no fourth-place teams have a positive run differential.

No other fourth- or fifth-place teams have a winning record, either, but the entire NL Central is now above .500 after the Cubs got there by handing the Mets their ninth consecutive loss. The division is separated by only 1.5 games, so the standings could be completely jumbled by the time Monday rolls around. Almost as jumbled as the Cubs’ pitching staff, which is apparently welcoming 30-year-old righty reliever Corbin Martin from Iowa to replace Daniel Palencia.

While I don’t mean to sound derogatory, I think it would be in the team’s best interest to play F the Closer as often as possible until Palencia returns. Oblique injuries can sideline players for several weeks, but we saw Palencia return much quicker than anticipated from a shoulder issue late last season. Totally different circumstances, I’m just trying for some optimism.

As for today, what matters most is Jameson Taillon giving the Cubs a strong outing. The 34-year-old was shelled repeatedly in Cactus League play, a trend that has continued over his last two starts, but he has punched out 17 batters over 16.2 innings. After looking incredibly rough to begin his last start on Sunday, Taillon hung with it and stopped the bleeding long enough for the bats to battle back.

The offense has now put up 47 runs over the last five games, with seemingly everything working. It’s funny how a manager’s moves look better when they work, like pinch-hitting for Moisés Ballesteros after he’d gone 2-for-2 with a three-run homer. Matt Shaw replaced the rookie to face lefty Sean Manaea and promptly struck out, but he rapped an RBI double later in the game.

Even if it still feels like Counsell is over-tinkering, we’re getting a great look at how much deeper this roster is than last year. As for the starting lineup, it’s Nico Hoerner at second, Michael Busch at first, Alex Bregman at third, and Ian Happ in left. Seiya Suzuki is in right, Ballesteros is the DH, Miguel Amaya does the catching, and Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center. Dansby Swanson rounds things out at short.

Opposing them this afternoon is former Brewers ace Freddy Peralta, who had to escape Milwaukee in a hurry after crumbling in the playoffs at Wrigley. Battered by a deluge of “FREDD-Y, FREDD-Y” chants, the righty appeared completely overwhelmed. He seems to be right back to his old self in Queens, posting remarkably consistent numbers.

His fastball and changeup velocities are down, however, which isn’t a great indication for a guy who turns 30 in June. And when you consider that those pitches make up nearly 75% of Peralta’s repertoire, it’s cause for concern as the Mets and other teams weigh a big-time contract offer with free agency coming up after this season. The drop in his offspeed velo hasn’t hurt that pitch, though Peralta’s heater hasn’t been as sharp.

The bigger issue could be his curveball, which is actually being thrown a little harder but with 2.2 fewer inches of vertical movement. His slider is also hanging up by about 2.8 inches with much less glove-side break, which could help to explain why his splits have trended more toward traditional after having been very neutral throughout his career. We’re only talking about four starts, so that could just be noise.

Then again, his home ballpark is now outdoors after having pitched in a dome — retractable, but still — for several years. Venue notwithstanding, Peralta has pretty much owned the Cubs in the past. This roster is slashing just .171/.267/.346 in 205 at-bats against him, so familiarity has not helped the hitters. Busch and Happ have hit three homers apiece, though, so maybe they can lead a breakthrough. Pay no attention to Happ’s overall line of 4-for-37 with 15 Ks.

Winds will be blowing out to right at 14-15 mph with gusts up to 22 mph, making it a good day for lefty batters to pull the ball. We’ll see if the Cubs can keep the bats hot when the game opens at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and The Score.