Ian Happ Integral as Cubs Keep Winning War of Attrition
If it seems like the Cubs have been doing a poor job of capitalizing with the runners in scoring position or even with the bases loaded, that’s because they have been. Their aggregate .246 average with runners on base is tied for 17th in MLB, and their 103 wRC+ in those situations puts them in 15th. They’re slightly better with RISP, with marks of .251 (13th) and 105, but those are the numbers you want to see from a contending offense.
What the Cubs lack in efficiency, however, they make up for in sheer brute force. Their 635 plate appearances with runners on are 63 more than the Pirates in second place, and their 377 PAs with RISP are 19 more than their rivals from Pittsburgh. So while there’s plenty of room to improve, what we’ve seen through the first month of the season is that the Cubs are willing to wait other teams out.
Getting runners on isn’t just about getting them in, though that would obviously be the best possible outcome. Dealing with men on base creates a more stressful environment for even the most stoic veteran pitchers, wearing them down quicker and leading to more opportunities later in the game. That’s part of the reason the Cubs have made a habit of coming back from being tied or behind over the last few weeks.
Among the top 15 hitters in MLB who’ve gotten the most PAs with runners on base, you’ll find five Cubs. What makes that really wild is that the Cubs have only three hitters among the top 60 (min. 50 PAs) in OBP, and I’d bet most would have pegged Seiya Suzuki (.430, 10th), Carson Kelly (.409, 21st), and Moises Ballesteros (.392, 30th) as the usual suspects. Okay, maybe Mo Baller. For what it’s worth, Nico Hoerner (.370) just missed the cut.
The titular player, however, can’t be found until No. 93 with his .351 OBP. What’s more important is that Ian Happ is currently riding a 22-game on-base streak that has seen him reach in a variety of ways. He’s striking out a little more than usual, but he’s also walking at a higher clip while hitting for more power. It all adds up to what could be his best season yet as a Cub.
I’m sure more than a few people out there will joke that it’s a low bar to clear, but Happ has averaged 3.3 fWAR per season since 2022. Even using the antiquated value of $8 million per incremental win, the left fielder has been worth roughly $26.6 million annually over the last four years. That’s a little over $6 million more than the AAV of his three-year, $61 million extension that ends after this season.
Other players have and will put up bigger numbers, and others will draw less ire from fans for one misguided reason or another. But Happ will keep on doing what he does as something like a bizarro Hoerner. The results are more volatile and can sometimes be obscured by a prolonged slump, but you can always bet on both players to have solid production at the end of each season.
That’s how the Cubs figure to operate as a unit, too. It’s unlikely they’ll suddenly jump to the top of the leaderboards in batting average or OBP, but they are going to keep grinding away until they overwhelm their opponents. Though it’s not always fun in the moment, you realize it when you look at the standings and see them at or near the top across the board.
