Quantifying Hope: Cubs Near 75% Playoff Odds Entering Weekend
Though dropping two of three in LA hurt them a little, the Cubs shook off the losses to get out of Southern California with an even record on the road trip. Now they’re back in Chicago with a chance to take over first place with a strong weekend against the Diamondbacks. The Reds still lead the only division in which all five teams are at or over .500, but all the models have the Cubs as the clear favorites.
As you can see from the graph below, the Cubs actually distanced themselves from the rest of the division over the last few days. Things are going to get really interesting after this weekend, because the Cubs host Cincy for four games. The Brewers come to Chicago for three in a little over two weeks, then the Cubs have seven on the road against the Pirates and Cards.
What has been mostly theoretical will quickly become actual as these teams start to play one another more often.
Despite some of their inconsistencies, the Cubs have been winning the war of attrition by outlasting their opponents. Their .353 OBP leads the league, and they’ve had 45 more plate appearances with runners on base than any other team in MLB. Before you can get ’em over and get ’em in, you have to get ’em on. The North Siders have done that better than anyone else, and it’s taken a toll on opposing pitchers.
Even Mason Miller cracked under the pressure of their persistence, giving up his first two runs of the season. This team isn’t just a swarm of mosquitoes buzzing in ears, though, as they’ve shown they can power their way to victory. The Cubs are fourth in home runs (42) and slugging (.427), second in wOBA (.349) and wRC+ (121), and tied for first in fWAR (7.6).
If there’s one area in which I’d like to see them make some improvements, it’s in their baserunning. The Cubs currently rank 17th in steals (20) and BsR (-0.1) after being third in both categories last season, so it’s clear they’re leaving a little meat on the bone in that area. Their offensive efficiency can and should be better, and I think we’ll see that happen as the summer comes around.
It’s pretty fun to think that this team has won 12 of its last 15 games and still has plenty of room to get better. Craig Counsell has done a great job of pushing the right buttons and pulling the right levers to put his players in positions to succeed, and they’ve been coming through when it matters. The offense feels much more balanced than in the past, with different players stepping up to carry the load. That should help them halt any skids before they get out of hand.
Now that we’re in May, these Friday snapshots should start yielding ever clearer pictures of how the season is progressing.
