Chicago Cubs Lineup (5/6/26): Hoerner Leads Off, Mo Baller DH, Rea Starting

It’s gotten to the point where the numbers from this Cubs run are ridiculous. They’ve won 13 straight home games (+34 run differential), seven in a row overall (+15), and 17 of their last 20 (+39) to move to the top of the division with the third-best record in MLB. Last night’s walk-off win was their second in a row and fifth in those 13 home wins, plus they’ve won five other games across the last 20 that have been decided by one or two runs. That’s stifled their overall run differential a bit, but the record is all that really matters.

Colin Rea can agree with that sentiment, as he comes into this game at 4-1 across seven appearances after starting in the bullpen and then moving back to the rotation. His loss came in his only bad game of the season, an abbreviated effort in LA that saw him give up six runs on as many hits with four walks. He’s only issued nine free passes overall, and it looked like he was nibbling too much.

This Reds roster has quite a bit of experience against Rea, and they’ve posted an .823 OPS with seven homers over 119 at-bats. Elly De La Cruz has been particularly effective, boasting a 1.242 OPS with two of those homers in 19 ABs. It looks like the wind will be blowing out to right-center this evening, so Rea is going to want to keep the ball down as much as possible.

Regardless of how well Rea pitches, it’d be best if the offense explodes for a bunch of runs early and then keeps going throughout the game. Nico Hoerner leads off at second base tonight, followed by Moisés Ballesteros at DH, Alex Bregman at third, and Ian Happ in left. Seiya Suzuki is in right, Michael Busch is at first, Carson Kelly is the catcher, and Pete Crow-Armstrong patrols center. Dansby Swanson bats last at short.

I was going to say something about Swanson being one of the best nine-hole hitters in the game, but he’s only got a wRC+ of 89 in that spot. That puts him 29th out of 68 hitters with at least 20 plate appearances. PCA is seventh with a 177 wRC+ as the ninth batter, but he’s not the highest on the team. That would be Miguel Amaya, whose 218 wRC+ ranks third. Now you know, and knowing is half the battle.

On the bump for the Reds is 29-year-old righty Brady Singer, who is in his second season in Cincy after coming over in a trade with the Royals for Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer. The No. 18 overall pick by the Royals out of Florida in 2018, Singer pitched 148.1 innings in the minors before being called up for the shortened 2020 season. Outside of a brief rehab stint at Triple-A the following season and a couple of temporary options in ’22, he has been a full-time big leaguer.

Though his ERA has fluctuated, most of Singer’s underlying metrics have remained consistent over the years…until this season. His 13.1% strikeout rate is down nearly 40% from his career mark, putting him in the sixth percentile among MLB pitchers. His 5.6% walk rate is also well off his norm, which would be a good thing for some guys.

Never a particularly hard thrower, his sinker is down to only 91 mph, more than a tick lower than in any previous season. His fastball is down as well, and he’s also throwing it less than in the last two seasons. Singer has also dialed back the cutter, effectively making him just a sinker/slider guy to lefties. As you can probably guess, throwing those two pitches in the zone as much as he does has yielded very poor results.

Left-handed hitters carry a .366/.398/.549 line into this one, which seems like it would be way better than their right-handed counterparts. And while righties are batting about 80 points worse and reaching base over 40 points less, they have a .576 slugging mark against Singer. His right-on-right repertoire is slightly more varied, with fewer sliders and more sweepers, but the fastball and cutter are negligible.

Part of the issue for Singer may be that his two breaking balls lack enough separation in terms of movement and velocity. The 80-81 mph sweeper gets less depth and a ton less sweep than most, and he tends to land it right in the lower-middle section of the zone. His 82 mph slider gets plenty of depth, but it has nearly the same location as the sweeper on a location heat map.

This guy doesn’t throw hard enough for hitters to have to respect his fastball, and his breaking pitches don’t have enough differentiation to keep opponents from sitting on them. Singer is certainly capable of putting together an excellent start, but nothing about his repertoire or performance through seven starts indicates that he’ll be a problem for the Cubs. His history against these hitters, however, signals otherwise.

The Cubs have just a .224 average with a .541 OPS and no homers against Singer in 49 total at-bats, but that does strike me as something of a mirage. The only player with more than six ABs against him is Nicky Lopez, so his .222 average has an outsized impact. There also appears to be a lot of bad BABIP luck involved, and we know this Cubs team has learned how to create its own good fortune.

Nothing can be taken for granted, especially after seeing Andrew Abbott pitching as well as he has all season in last night’s game, but this sets up really nicely for the Cubs to win yet again. First pitch is at 6:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.

Game three vs. the Reds.

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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) May 6, 2026