Luck May Be About to Turn for Bregman, Ballesteros
There has been a lot of talk, probably a little too much, about how Alex Bregman has explained that success at the plate comes from hitting the ball hard and at the right angles. Hard-hit balls are going to generate good results more often than their weaker counterparts, but grounders and high flies are not as desirable as line drives. And then there are the times when you do everything right and the baseball gods just sit back and laugh as you come up with nothing.
That was the case for the Cubs last night, as their six hardest-hit balls went for naught in a quiet loss to the Braves. Alex Bregman’s home run, their only hit in the game, came in seventh on the list. It also had the lowest expected batting average of the bunch, with a .350 that came in 40 points lower than Michael Busch‘s deep flyout in the 9th inning.
Bregman’s dinger was his first since April 24 in LA, a drought of 14 games, and it came with one out in the 4th. The Cubs then drew three straight walks to load the bases for Moisés Ballesteros, whose 107.1 mph exit velocity was the second-hardest of the game. The only problem is that it had a -1 degree launch angle and went to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim for an RBI forceout that limited the Cubs’ ability to keep adding on. If he produces that same contact 100 times, he’d end up with 48 hits.
Two innings earlier, Mo Baller hammered a liner that ate up Ozzie Albies for a moment before the second baseman gathered the ball and threw to first. At 105.8 mph and 9 degrees, it had a .760 xBA. That came two batters after Ian Happ led off the inning with a lineout to right hit 105.7 mph at 20 degrees, good for a .670 xBA. Bregman made the list two more times, first with a 102 mph groundout (.460 xBA) in the opening frame and then with a 101.7 mph forceout (.680) to end the 5th.
This isn’t about putting on rose-colored glasses and trying to retcon the result of the game or anything, but I do think it’s important to look at what Bregman and Ballesteros did and how it may portend good things to come. Bregman posted a 52 wRC+and .500 OPS over 60 plate appearances between homers, and Ballesteros remains mired in a slump that has him at a -23 wRC+ and .264 OPS in his last 44 PAs. For those who aren’t as conversant in the context, that means he’s been 123 worse than the average MLB hitter in that span.
Hitting can be kind of like flipping a coin, and these two players are too good to have it keep coming up tails. Continuing to produce solid contact may not immediately produce dueling stretches of elite offensive output, but it should at least see both players get back to results that are more in line with expectations. As obvious as that may seem at its core, I enjoy having the ability to quantify these things.
