Quantifying Hope: Hot Stretch Vaults Cubs Back Near 60% Playoff Odds

Winning four in a row and 10 of 13 has a way of turning things around just a wee bit, especially when most of the other teams in the division aren’t playing as well. Though the Brewers remain way out front with no signs of slowing, the Pirates and Cardinals have sputtered over the last 10 games. That has moved the Cubs into second place in the NL Central and into Wild Card position.

They’ve also bettered their playoff odds by over 12 percentage points from a week ago, with their 58.2% mark now sitting nearly 20 points higher than the next two teams. The Reds, meanwhile, continue to prove that just hiring a famous manager isn’t enough to make you successful.

The tough part is that the Cubs now have to face the Brewers, who have their top three starters lined up for the weekend in Milwaukee. Even with a winning road trip assured, Craig Counsell and his team can ill afford to limp back home without at least one win in this set. Concerns about the offense have been allayed for now, but a far bigger spectre looms as the rotation has been further shredded.

Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown were both placed on the IL for what figures to be an extended period of time, forcing the front office to make an emergency trade for Mets lefty David Peterson. We’ll get our first look at him this weekend, and I think fans who are pointing to his ERA will be pleasantly surprised by how he pitches in front of an actual defense.

Still, it feels like the Cubs are driving on two flat tires right now and just hoping to make it to the garage before their rims are compromised too. And maybe they already have been. Counsell had to depend too heavily on a bullpen that has looked at times like a child’s drawing, and we saw what happened when Hoby Milner came on for the third game in a row. The soft-tossing sidewinder has pitched in 38 games, and his inability to miss bats is becoming more of a problem each time out.

If they can’t get someone to step up in that bullpen, it may not matter how well the offense keeps humming.