Cubs Climb Over Hump, Now Need to Hold Position
These guys aren’t Riff Raff. The Cubs are 15-4 in their last 19 games and the season’s record is no longer threatening the .500 mark. Some of the bats have awakened — Pete Crow-Armstrong, of course, and Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson have been raking lately — and that reversion to the mean for those players has overcome the drama of this ongoing M*A*S*H reboot. Even the 1985 season didn’t hold such horrors as 2026, and there’s half a season left.
It could be much worse. It could get better.
What happens if there is further reversion to the mean? If Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki resume lifetime-average-like seasons? That means a lot of runs scored as the math starts working for them. If it works for them. There’s no guarantee.
Still, every one of those players is capable of a run like the one Swanson is on, or an extended stretch of such offense — Suzuki did it for half a season in 2025. Bregman has had stretches like that in his long career. Hoerner regularly threatens a .300 average.
Despite their well-documented pitching woes, the Cubs are in second place, 5.5 games behind the blue devil magic of the Brewers. The St. Louis Red Devils are a couple games behind, and Cincinnati is the only team in the NL Central under the .500 mark.
But…what if those bats don’t wake up? Can the Cubs still make the playoffs?
Probably not, but they’re tied with the Philles for the top Wild Card spot now and hold a three-game lead over the Cards for the third spot. They’ll have to fight that position and try not to limp into the postseason tournament.
If Jameson Taillon can resume his workmanlike pitching, Colin Rea can continue to do what he does, Matthew Boyd can stay healthy, Edward Cabrera can get healthy, and Craig Counsell can mix and match, the Cubs have a puncher’s chance. On a good day, they’re heavyweights. They have 10 walkoff wins this year, tops in the league. They walk more than anyone else, plus they have speed and power to burn.
That’s a lot of ‘ifs’ though, and the odds are against it. Realizing that doesn’t mean you’re a bad fan, it just means you’re realistic. So is recognizing the very real chance that the club can put things together enough to make their mark. I’m choosing to believe that they will. There’s no need to fear.
In the meantime, PCA has announced that he won’t be in the Home Run Derby this year. Maybe next year, when Wrigley Field will play host. One assumes he’ll make the reserve squad for the Midsummer Classic itself; it’s a crime that he’s not starting, but he’s a designated villain and loses some votes that way.
It puts fannies in the seats, though, says Rob Bar Sinister.
More in a day or two — apologies for the absence. My next book’s innards were due several yesterdays ago. Thanks for reading.
