Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/28/26): Rea Faces Cards for First Time This Season

The Cubs beat the Cardinals in a series opener for the first time in three tries last night, but they’ve still got three games to go in this set. They’ll need to win three just to even the season series after dropping four of six, so tonight’s game is that much more important. Then there’s the matter of pushing the pace in the Wild Card race while also gaining ground on the Brewers.

Colin Rea is tasked with setting the tone on the mound tonight in his first appearance against the Cards in 2026. It’s not quite as odd that he hasn’t faced them prior to late July as it would have been prior to the balanced schedule that eliminated so many divisional games, but I was still surprised to see it. What’s more, Rea will now have faced 21 different teams in 22 appearances this season; he faced the Phillies in consecutive outings back on April 14 and 20.

The 36-year-old has been relatively steady, but the Cubs don’t need a tortoise at this point. With a 4.85 ERA, 4.95 FIP, and a general inability to miss bats, Rea is a prime candidate to be bumped from the rotation by an inevitable trade acquisition or two. Javier Assad will take over for Jameson Taillon for the time being, but he too is in danger of being moved back to the bullpen (or Triple-A) by the start of next week.

Though Assad’s ERA is better than Rea’s, his 5.04 FIP tells us that something of a mirage (that’s kind of been the case for his whole career, though). Then you’ve got the 16% strikeout rate (9th percentile), 22.8% chase rate (1st), and 13.6% whiff rate (1st) that are well below what Rea has posted. The Cubs may be able to keep one of them at the back end of the rotation, but not both. Edward Cabrera begins his rehab assignment on Friday, and both Daniel Palencia and Hunter Harvey are expected to do the same next week.

That means at least two starters and two relievers (plus Hoby Milner) will need spots, not all of which will be vacated by trading prospects or current big leaguers. Rea’s next probable start would be on Sunday against the Yankees, so this could be his last in a Cubs uniform if Jed Hoyer gets something done prior to the deadline. If so, let’s hope he makes the most of it.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is leading off in center, Seiya Suzuki is in right, Michael Busch is at first, and Alex Bregman cleans up at third. Ian Happ is the DH, Nico Hoerner is at short, Michael Conforto is in left, and Carson Kelly is the catcher. Pedro Ramírez gets the start at second as the nine hitter.

They’re up against 26-year-old Michael McGreevy, who has yet to face the Cubs this season. He had two starts against them last year, both of which went poorly for the young righty, but he’s come into his own with a 3.07 ERA over 20 starts in 2026. Some of that looks like a mirage, as he’s somewhere between Rea and Assad when it comes to chase, whiffs, and strikeouts. McGreevy is a throwback who sits around 92 with his fastball and lives in the zone with a repertoire meant to get outs on the ground.

He’s got seven different pitches that he’ll deploy in vastly different manners based on who’s at the plate. Left-handed hitters see mainly four-seam (31%), change (25%), cutter (17%), and curve (15%); right-handed hitters get sinker (38%), sweeper (28%), four-seam (16%), and change (11%). McGreevy also has a slider, and you can sort of fill in the blanks with his other secondaries if you’re worried about the four I listed for each side not adding up to 100.

His traditional platoon splits come mainly from an interesting phenomenon that sees him being much worse on the road against lefties. It’s like a 30-point difference in average and OBP with a 100-point swing in slugging. The splits are almost even at Busch across an almost identical number of batters, so he must really like his routine when he’s at home. Though that doesn’t bode particularly well for the Cubs, they carry an .882 OPS with three homers in 55 at-bats against McGreevy into this one.

This lineup should be able to make plenty of hard contact tonight, so it’ll be a matter of getting some balls in the air and executing on the bases. McGreevy is like a poor man’s Kyle Hendricks in that he’s able to shove without looking like he’s doing so. Given the way the Cubs have been hitting, especially if Hoerner stays hot, I think they’ll be able to take full advantage of their opponent tonight.

First pitch is set for 7:45pm CT on Marquee, TBS (out-of-market only) and The Score.