Chicago Cubs Lineup (7/29/26): Ramírez Gets Another Start, Boyd Bump Day
The first two games have gone according to plan, putting the Cubs up in the series and bringing them to a 4-4 tie with the Cardinals on the season. Now they just need to keep taking care of business in St. Louis before heading back to Chicago, which will be much easier if the bats stay hot. We’re starting to see more of the all-around offensive attack that paced their hot stretch earlier in the season, with contributions coming from every spot in the lineup.
That surely lends a little confidence to Matthew Boyd, who has looked very good since coming off the IL. That unintentional rest might actually be better for him down the stretch, as his workload will be much lighter than last season. Boyd hasn’t faced the Cardinals this season, but their hitters have been moderately successful against him over 30 previous at-bats. He should be in good shape as long as he keeps his opponents at bay for a few innings.
Pete Crow-Armstrong leads off in center, followed by Seiya Suzuki in right and Michael Busch at first. Alex Bregman is batting cleanup, which has been going better since he switched to a heavier bat, and Ian Happ is in left. Michael Conforto is the DH, Pedro Ramírez handles second as Nico Hoerner gets the night off, Dansby Swanson is at short, and Miguel Amaya is the catcher.
They’re facing former Dodgers righty Dustin May, who is on pace to blow away his previous record for innings pitched in a season. After missing all of 2024 and big chunks of several previous seasons with a variety of injuries, including two UCL surgeries and a freak esophageal tear, he pitched a career-high 132.1 innings over 25 total appearances with 23 starts between the Dodgers and Red Sox. He’d never made more than 14 appearances or thrown more than 56 innings previously, so we’re talking about a huge jump.
May was not without some more injury issues, however, as he was shut down for the last few weeks of the season with right elbow neuritis. He signed a one-year, $12.5 million deal with the Cardinals as a stopgap starter, and he’s pitched moderately well over 20 starts. His 4.59 ERA is much higher than his 3.16 FIP says it should be, which could be a product of a .333 BABIP against that is almost 50 points higher than his historic mark.
The blazing fastball that used to sit just above 99 mph is still at 97, so his arm is still electric despite all it’s gone through. That four-seam also makes up a lot more of May’s repertoire than it did when he first came up, as he used to be a sinker/cutter guy. He dialed back the cutter over time and incorporated a sweeper last season, to the point that he threw the breaking ball more than any other pitch. His sinker has likewise been reduced to a great degree since 2019-20.
May made another drastic shift in his pitch mix this season, dropping the sweeper from over 39% usage to just over 19% with the Cards. That makes sense because it’s been his worst pitch in terms of overall value, though the curve and changeup are worse on a per-pitch basis. That trio of offerings accounts for nearly 40% of his mix against left-handed hitters, which helps to explain why his splits are so stark.
Being a lanky dude with a low-three-quarter slot has made May a tough look for right-handed hitters, but lefties have a much better visual of his primarily east/west repertoire. He’s also been helped by Busch Stadium’s sluggish park factors this season, as his home numbers are a drastic departure from what he’s done on the road. Rather than break this down on a more granular level, I’ll just say that this is probably going to come down to the Cubs playing station-to-station baseball.
Even though May is merely mediocre at getting grounders while being downright awful at giving up hard contact, he’s got a knack for keeping the ball in the park. St. Louis has the worst ballpark in MLB when it comes to hitting homers, likely due to the increased swirling of wind caused by the decided lack of Cardinals fans in the seats. May has allowed only seven homers, with just one coming in 62.2 innings at home.
If the Cubs can just maintain their past performance against him, they’ll be fine without a big power display. Over 36 total at-bats, this roster has a 1.071 OPS with four doubles and two homers. PCA is responsible for a double and a homer from a 3-for-3 effort in his only previous game against May, and I like him to make some noise tonight.
First pitch is once again scheduled for 6:45pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
