Quantifying Hope: Cubs Survive Brewers Series, Maintain 99% Playoff Odds
Well, they made it through the first round. It wasn’t always pretty, but the Cubs managed to split with the Brewers at Wrigley to avoid losing ground in the division. They also picked up a half-game on the idle Phillies on Thursday, though the Cubs still trail in the race for the top Wild Card spot. As noted here in the past, that might not be a terrible outcome since the Phils have been a little better on the road this season.
Even going 5-8 over their last 13 games hasn’t changed the Cubs’ playoff odds over the last few weeks, as they’ve held steady at roughly 99% since August 6. That was when they beat the Blue Jays in a makeup game just after sweeping the Dodgers, which seems like it happened way more than a month ago. In the end, a 16-12 month was good enough. Treading water over the final 21 games should be enough to get them into the playoffs, likely without having to face the Brewers in the first round.
Pete Crow-Armstrong busting out of his funk against those rivals to the north was a big part of Thursday’s win, and it’s part of why he’ll win the NL MVP. Well, that and Shohei Ohtani‘s body breaking down to the point that even the most intellectually dishonest Dodgers fans will finally have to admit that the race is over. Ohtani hasn’t pitched since July 3 due to a knee injury, and now he’s dealing with bicep and neck issues. He’s 7-for-51 with 20 strikeouts over his last 13 games and is now 2.5 games behind PCA in fWAR and 2.0 behind him in bWAR.
With three weeks left, the Cubs need their stars to continue carrying them while the supporting actors step up as well. PCA, Alex Bregman, and Seiya Suzuki are among the top eight in both fWAR and wRC+ in the second half, but Michael Busch has been a non-factor. He’s been well below average offensively (87 wRC+) and is basically a replacement player overall in his last 200 plate appearances (0.1 fWAR). Both of those marks are the lowest on the team among Cubs with at least 50 PAs since the break.
It’s not a matter of his splits, as Busch has put up nearly identical numbers against righties and lefties this season. Those results have fluctuated over time, of course, but it’s not as though something shifted dramatically to indicate that using a platoon bat is necessary. Unless it’s just a matter of playing much more than in the past. At 624 PAs, Busch has blown past last year’s career high of 592. More than that, he’s played 40 more innings in the field than he did in 2025.
While that doesn’t seem like enough to have caused him to hit a wall, and maybe it isn’t, we’ve seen a drastic reduction in his offensive output. But that’s been a season-long issue rather than a drop-off in the second half, and he was actually a little better in August than in July. Maybe the focus on playing every day and being better against lefties has cost him against righties.
Whatever the case, getting Busch back to his old self in September and the postseason would lessen the need for the Cubs’ three best hitters to do everything. Thanks for coming along for the ride, only three more of these posts to go.
