Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/6/26): Holmes Starting with Chance to Sweep
It had been a while since the Cubs won a series, but they managed to get it done yesterday despite an overall ugly effort. But you know what? Those gutty, gross wins are exactly the kinds of games they weren’t winning recently. It seemed as though they had to blow teams out or risk giving winnable contests away. Now they have a chance to sweep behind a pitcher who looks like a playoff Game 1 starter.
Clay Holmes has a 1.55 ERA with a 67.5% groundball rate in five starts since the Cubs adopted him from the Mets’ shelter. His strikeout rate has climbed over his last two starts, and you’d like to see it continue to rise heading into October. Regardless, his superpower is giving up the kind of contact his defense can convert into outs.
You’d think Holmes would have a better record with just one run allowed over his last four starts, but he took a loss for giving up that lone tally. Getting a little early offense might make this one a runaway. Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Seiya Suzuki is the DH, Michael Busch is at first, and Alex Bregman is at third. Ian Happ is in left, Nico Hoerner mans short, Pedro Ramirez takes second, and Michael Conforto is the DH. Carson Kelly bats ninth as the catcher.
Update: Happ was scratched due to left knee discomfort, so Tyrone Taylor is starting in left.
They’re facing 28-year-old righty Tyler Phillips, a swingman who has started 16 of his 33 appearances this season. He’s a backwards pitcher who throws far more breaking and offspeed pitches, which he should because his 96 mph sinker and four-seam have been very bad. Though the sinker has decent action, he tends to leave it out over the plate too much. The fastball is flat and very hittable, but it’s thrown infrequently.
Phillips’ best pitch is the 87 mph splitter he throws almost equally to hitters on both sides of the plate because it’s got good depth and doesn’t leak to either side. He often lands his 84 mph sweeper for strikes, and his 84 mph curve gets 12-6 movement. Phillips does a decent job of getting whiffs and chase, but his strengths are avoiding hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground.
Left-handed hitters naturally get a better look at him and have generated better overall results, but the more important splits are found in his home/road numbers. Because loadDepot park has been among the most pitcher-friendly in MLB this season, Phillips’ numbers there are much better. His ability to stay away from barrels means that he’s able to get away with far more mistakes there than he can when he’s the visitor.
The Cubs have only 10 combined at-bats against Phillips, five of which have come from Gabriel Arias and Tyrone Taylor, so this won’t be about familiarity. This one may come down to manufacturing runs. First pitch is at 12:40pm CT on Marquee and The Score.
