Cubs Have Historically Wide Gap Between Hitting, Pitching WAR
Have you ever believed things were about as bad as they could get, but then you look at the facts and find out that they’re actually worse? Anecdotal evidence usually works the opposite way, like when someone asks why Tyrone Taylor is batting cleanup against a lefty or when they say Ian Happ has always been bad in the clutch. Data quickly explains that Taylor has mashed lefties and that Happ’s 128 wRC+ in high-leverage situations is 10 points better than in medium leverage and 17 points better than in low.
When it comes to the disparity between the Cubs’ hitting and pitching, however, things might be worse than you’d thought. Like, way worse. As shown below in a graphic tweeted by Thomas Nestico, the Cubs rank fifth in MLB with 38.1 total fWAR. That’s good, right? Well, yes, but that figure comes from an MLB-best 34.5 hitting WAR and an MLB-worst 3.6 pitching WAR.
WAR by Team pic.twitter.com/HAGLKskEAM
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) September 8, 2026
Only nine teams have a single-digit pitching WAR, and the Nationals are the only other team with fewer than 5.0 heading into Tuesday’s action. Spurred by a question on X, I exported the team hitting and pitching WAR results from FanGraphs for every season in MLB history to see where the Cubs fell in terms of their delta. At 30.95 (the export actually takes it out to five decimal places), this year’s squad has the fifth-largest disparity of all-time between hitting and pitching WAR.
The top team? That would be the 1927 Yankees, whose offensive prowess resulted in the highest hitting WAR in baseball history. Their 16.42 pitching WAR was quite respectable, but it couldn’t hold a candle to the 49.32 WAR posted by Murderer’s Row. In fact, their pitching was better than every other team in the top 39 when sorted by hitting/pitching disparity.
Then you’ve got the Big Red Machine showing up twice, which isn’t surprising when you have a lineup filled with Hall of Fame players who knew when to drink from the special coffee pot. They had solid pitching as well, especially in that ’76 season.
The Cubs, on the other hand, feature the lowest pitching WAR of any team among the top 46 in that same group. And based on my relatively unscientific research, the lowest pitching WAR by any team to make the World Series in that season is 7.1 by the 2020 Rays. And unless you’ve forgotten, they only played 60 games that year due to COVID. So yeah, the Cubs are in a tough spot.
Their only pitcher with more than 1.2 fWAR this season is Ben Brown (2.0), and he only managed 68 innings before a stress reaction in his neck cost him his season after his start on June 19. Kevin Gausman (0.6) and Clay Holmes (0.5) rank fourth and fifth despite having been with the team for just over a month. Aaron Civale and David Peterson (both 0.4) were also mid-season additions, and they fall right between Jacob Webb (0.5) and Colin Rea (0.3) in the top nine.
The Cubs have 13 pitchers with positive WAR, 10 who are neutral, and 15 with negative numbers. Many of you will be surprised to learn that Javier Assad (-0.2) falls in the latter group. Jameson Taillon (-1.1) sits at the bottom of the list, with Trent Thornton (-0.6), Caleb Thielbar (-0.4), and the injured Phil Maton (-0.4) just above him. Taillon’s season ranks as the sixth-worst in Cubs history, putting him in a virtual tie with Ernie Broglio‘s 1965 and Craig Kimbrel‘s 2019 campaigns.
Ed note: Assad is actually much better when using bWAR, but we have to keep it consistent.
That doesn’t really matter because he’s no longer on the team, but even discounting Taillon’s performance puts the Cubs’ pitching WAR well below what you’d expect from a contending team. And yes, I’m well aware that we’re talking about an imperfect metric that isn’t meant to be predictive. What it tells us, though, is that the pitching staff is every bit as bad in historical context as your recency bias leads you to believe.
Ah, but there is hope. Being bad overall does not mean the Cubs can’t still get great individual or aggregate performances in short bursts. They don’t need great pitching all season; they only need it for one game at a time over a period of a few weeks. Is that too much to ask? Probably, but I wanted to avoid ending with total doom and gloom.
Hey, maybe we can just flip it all the way to the positive and say that the Cubs have an even better chance to go on a run if their pitching comes together. I mean, look at what they’ve done in spite of all the injuries and poor performances. The winning formula is very simple when it comes to getting back to the Fall Classic: Shorten the rotation, get Daniel Palencia‘s confidence back, and score 10 runs per game. Bingo.
