Swanson Nearing Return, Steele Making Another Rehab Appearance, Palencia Not Missing Bats

As much as I’d like to go on about Pete Crow-Armstrong having just the 16th season of 10+ fWAR in the last half-century, I feel like we’ve already chewed most of the meat off that bone. His MVP was more or less secured by Shohei Ohtani‘s poor results over the last few weeks, and the honor is locked up now that Ohtani is on the IL. All that remains is seeing whether PCA can establish a new franchise record, which is very possible with 15 games left to play.

We should see Dansby Swanson again at some point during that stretch, as he was with the team in Milwaukee to do some fielding drills and take BP. Even with the capable Nico Hoerner handling shortstop, Swanson’s absence has been felt since he suffered a strained left oblique on August 16. Craig Counsell said the plan is for him to get into some game action when the Cubs host Atlanta next week, but he was speaking about a rehab assignment.

Swanson will likely continue working out with the Cubs through Monday, then head to Omaha to join Triple-A Iowa for some of their final series of the season. The Cubs have next Thursday off as well, then they’re in Cincinnati for a brief road trip. Provided all goes well, Swanson could be ready for that Reds series.

Justin Steele has been with the I-Cubs for a while, and he’s scheduled to make his third rehab appearance on Thursday night. After initially being scheduled to start, the team said that he will pitch out of the bullpen. He had started both of his first two games, but that was more about making sure he could come in clean rather than trying to stretch him out. Steele recorded five outs in his first start and six in his second, but any chance at making it back to Chicago will come in a relief role.

He’s going to need to take some big strides over his next few appearances for that to be possible, as he’s only sitting at 91 mph with the fastball. While that is not far off his career average, working in short bursts means he should probably be more like 92-93 to be effective. Not that velocity is everything, as we’re seeing with Daniel Palencia lately.

The former closer has gotten only one swing and miss over his last four appearances, a sample of 60 pitches. He got three on the slider alone during his outing against the Reds on August 28, but giving up a home run to TJ Friedl right after striking out the first two batters he faced may have seriously damaged his confidence. He had been activated off the IL a week earlier to work a perfect inning against the Mariners on just 10 pitches, one of which was a whiff on a fastball.

Then came the inflection point. Though he got two whiffs on the four-seam and another on the slider against the Diamondbacks on August 25, he also hit one batter, walked another, and gave up an RBI double that was followed by a single that drove in two more. Palencia was replaced by Jacob Webb, and the Cubs eventually lost the game in walk-off fashion. In fact, they have lost all seven games in which Palencia has appeared since being activated.

At the risk of conflating correlation with causation, he’s given up at least one hit or walk in the last six of those games. And even when he’s getting outs, he isn’t missing bats. Counsell and Tommy Hottovy have talked about how he’s still trying to find his way back both mentally and physically, even though it’s hard to pinpoint what might be wrong on the latter front when he’s still throwing 100 mph. Except that he’s not, or at least not as often as he should be.

It’s like the Diamondbacks stunned him with a left hook and the Reds landed a haymaker that put him on the mat. Through his first five appearances before going on the IL with a left oblique strain, Palencia averaged 99 mph and was never below 98.5 mph in a game. Over 14 outings between his return from the oblique and then going back on the IL with elbow inflammation, he averaged 99.6 mph and was never below 98.4 mph in a game.

Over these last seven outings, however, he’s averaged 98.5 mph and has been at or below 98.2 mph in each of the last three games. That’s not great for a pitcher whose value lies in his ability to throw really hard and miss bats. Perhaps because I just listened to the latest episode of The Rewatchables on Talladega Nights, this reminds me a little of when Ricky Bobby got back in the car and was driving way too slow as everyone zipped by him.

No one’s going to confuse 98+ mph for slow, but I hope you get my point. Whether you call him a closer, a high-leverage reliever, or just an out-getter, Palencia needs to go out and throw with a great deal more confidence than he’s displaying. Doing so might just be the difference between a playoff run and an early exit, and the Cubs might not make it to October at all if the bullpen can’t get right in a hurry.