Jacob Webb’s Water Needs to Find Level Before Cubs Drown

If the Cubs had the benefit of an even moderately reliable bullpen, Jacob Webb might have to be worried about finding a red tag in his locker soon. As it is, Craig Counsell has little option but to keep running his would-be closer out there in the hopes that he can rediscover what made him the team’s best reliever for most of the season. There is some hope for that, even if recent results scream otherwise.

Webb leads the team with nine saves, as many as the next three men on the list combined, and his 65 appearances are 10 more than anyone else on the roster. He’s striking out more than one batter per inning and his 8.9% walk rate is a little below the league average for relievers. Webb is also generating more grounders than ever, and his 4.18 FIP is well within range of his 4.09 career mark.

The problem, which has become painfully obvious, is that he’s become nigh unpitchable over the last few weeks as his prized changeup has turned into a BP fastball. Webb throws that pitch about 40% of the time, upping it to 50% against left-handed hitters, and its +3 run value is in the 80th percentile among MLB pitchers. That mark was at +5 through August 21, however, and it had generated negative value in only 15 of his 57 appearances in that stretch.

Over his last eight appearances, starting with August 22 in Seattle, the change has been worth -1.8 runs and has been negative five times. Four of Webb’s eight blown saves this year have come in this sample, and all of them have come when he gave up a two-run homer. Tuesday night’s loss was the first of those in which the homer came earlier than the 9th inning and with only one out, so that’s a little better than being walked off or seeing the game tied when the Cubs were about to win.

Still, giving up four homers out of 10 total hits with four walks and as many strikeouts in 6.2 innings of work is not going to cut it. Not just for a high-leverage reliever, but for anyone on the pitching staff. Webb said after his previous blown save against the Brewers that he’s “tired of letting the team down,” and he’s probably not the only member of the bullpen who feels that way.

The ideal solution might be to give him a few more days off, as he’s made five more appearances than in any other season and is less than three innings shy of a new career high. This could be a situation in which Webb has simply hit a wall, especially considering he’s gotten more work in save situations than in the past.

The problem, of course, is that there’s nowhere left to turn at this point. If there were viable options waiting in Iowa, the Cubs would have called them up already. Edward Cabrera was supposed to help the bullpen, but he gave up a two-run tank of his own in relief of Webb. Shelby Miller was just shut down for the season, and Justin Steele may not be able to get MLB-ready in time.

Jaxon Wiggins would be exciting if his 17 strikeouts over the last 13.1 innings were accompanied by 14 walks. To be fair, he’s at 13 Ks and only eight walks in 10.2 innings since moving to a relief role.

Perhaps the white knight is Gavin Hollowell, who has been rehabbing in Iowa after being shut down with right shoulder inflammation on July 31. Over his last three outings, Hollowell has given up one run on three hits with two strikeouts and two walks. His spotty control and low grounder rate make for an unappealing combination, but he might be the only option the Cubs have between now and the end of the season.

This feels a little like Dr. Richard Kimble staring down Deputy US Marshall Samuel Gerard and deciding to jump off a dam spillway rather than be arrested. What I’m saying is that Counsell may have to say “I don’t care” about the recent results and keep running Webb out there. Same for Cabrera and Daniel Palencia. And yes, I know I just combined the two characters into one for the purposes of my analogy.

The point is that the Cubs are only going to find success if the guys at the back end of the bullpen are pitching well. And since there is no one else available to them this late in the season, that means having to depend on them to figure something out in short order. Webb has looked awful lately, just like he looked incredible prior to that. Even if his true value is somewhere in between, settling into that would mean a lot to a team that has to keep outhitting its own bullpen.

They can’t count on the Phillies and Diamondbacks to keep matching their losses like they did on Tuesday, so let’s hope Webb’s water finds its level before he and his team drown.