Chicago Cubs Lineup (9/29/26): Boyd Starting, Bats Try to Overthrow King
After 162 games, the postseason is finally here. Just like last year, the Cubs and Padres will face off in a best-of-3 Wild Card matchup that figures to be tightly contested. This probably isn’t what the Cubs and their fans would have preferred, even if some folks are trying to rationalize it as being better than playing at Wrigley. Whether it’s being the late game on Peacock or giving the Padres a decided advantage, playing in San Diego does not work in the Cubs’ favor.
That doesn’t mean they can’t still win, of course, but it’s going to be tougher without their raucous home crowd behind them. Matthew Boyd is going to have to do a job tonight, just like he has over his last two starts. Things got rocky for a month there before he righted the ship late, so we’ve got to hope he’s still sharp in this one. Sharper than when he pitched in San Diego back on April 27, when he gave up five earned runs on eight hits over just four innings.
Boyd ended up with a no-decision in that one because the Cubs also scored five runs behind him before going on to lose 9-7 because Ben Brown, Phil Maton, and Jacob Webb could not keep the Pads down. The best bet tonight, and any night, is to strike early and keep the pressure on San Diego. That starts with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center and Alex Bregman at DH to open the game for the road team.
Michael Busch is at first, Seiya Suzuki is in right, Ian Happ is in left, and Nico Hoerner is at second. Pedro Ramírez will handle the hot corner with Carson Kelly catching and Dansby Swanson at short.
They’re opposed by Michael King, whose performance this season hasn’t been as good as his 3.21 ERA suggests. His strikeout rate has plummeted to a career-low 21.0%, and his 9.2% walk rate is the highest he’s had over parts of eight MLB seasons. But what he lacks in swing-and-miss he makes up for by avoiding hard contact. King works with a balanced repertoire and generally avoids big mistakes, which isn’t great for a Cubs team that relies heavily on the home run.
His 93 mph sinker has good depth and keeps hitters from getting many barrels, then there’s the 82 mph sweeper that stays low in the zone. He’ll mix in an occasional slider at 85-86 mph that works more in the middle. The 94 mph fastball is really more of a show-me pitch that accounts for about 20% of his mix. The real gem is the 86-87 mph changeup that has good depth and arm-side runs.
That offspeed pitch is in the 97th percentile for value, and it’s made King tougher on left-handed batters this season. He’s pitched to nearly identical splits over the course of his career, with only three points separating OPS and one separating wOBA between righties and lefties. This year’s numbers look pronounced by comparison, with righties carrying 20 more points in OBP, 27 more in slugging, and 21 more in wOBA.
Those splits tighten up a little when he’s pitching at home, where his ERA is 0.90 runs better and his supporting metrics are all stronger as well. He has not, however, pitched well against these Cubs batters. Over an admittedly small sample of 33 at-bats, the Cubs have slashed .333/.421/.485 with a .906 OPS. Most of that is thanks to Alex Bregman, who is 7-for-8 with two doubles and a pair of walks for a 2.025 OPS.
As nice as it would be for the Cubs to boatrace King and grab a 1-0 lead to create a massive competitive advantage, this game feels like it’ll be a grind. I sure hope I’m wrong, because my old ass doesn’t want to run the risk of falling asleep with the outcome still undetermined. First pitch is on Peacock and ESPN Radio.
